The inside guide to eating and drinking in Melbourne. Since 2005.

14 ways to tell when a restaurant will close down

by Ed

Together with news that Port Melbourne’s Ping has closed (via Epicure) comes, via Ruhlman, the news that 60 per cent of restaurants fail, not the popularly quoted figure of 90 per cent. According to Businessweek, banks perpetuate the myth that 90 per cent of restaurants fail, which justifies the fact that they won’t invest in them because they are high risk businesses.

The story quotes research from HG Parsa, associate professor in Ohio State University’s Hospitality Management program:

“about one in four restaurants close or change ownership within their first year of business. Over three years, that number rises to three in five. While a 60% failure rate may still sound high, that’s on par with the cross-industry average for new businesses…”

Apparently the main reasons for failure are, like for any business an initial lack of working capital and the business owner’s lack of time, knowledge or passion.

The issue of location can be overcome by a great product, something I think we will see from Tempura Hajime, which will be one of this year’s new restaurant successes.

Back to Ping. When I last visited eight months ago there was a pong of death about it. All the warning signs were there. The service was bad, the quality of food was suffering and some wines were not available because the owner was on holiday. Another blogger reported that the seven day restaurant was closing some lunch times.
There is plenty of shuffling of the restaurant pack in Melbourne and the suburbs right now. The transformation of Crown Casino into a culinary juggernaute with some of the country’s top chefs will inevitably hit some of the CBD’s fine dining hard.

Already some of the below is playing out. Watch out for more:
The food fascist’s guide to restaurant failure 

1. Crap service. When a restaurant is on its knees the staff will know and the service will suffer however much they hide it. The best people will leave and out of work actors will join.
2. The food gets worse. Substitution of cheap ingredients and the owner cutting costs in the kitchen.

3. There are gaps of what’s available on the menu or wine list. The owner can’t afford to pay the bills.

4. Linen is replaced by paper. Bills again and two points off (in some restaurant reviews)

5. Closed on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. People stopped coming. Why?

6. Investors pull out. Restaurateur forced to buy them out or find a new investor. Where are the money men when you need them?
7. Fire the chef! His portions are too small (people want value), big (he’s wasting money) and people don’t like the food anymore.

8. Hire a hot new chef. Make him/her a partner in the business. But don’t show him the real financials.

9. Refurbish, refurbish, refurbish. Sell your house or mortgage. Beg, borrow or steal the money any way you can – the banks won’t lend it to you.

10. Launch a whack new foam-based tapas menu. Yeah, that’ll get ‘em in.

11. Increase prices. Especially for anything that sounds Spanish and foreign sounding wines.
12. Punters stop coming. They can smell fear a mile away (and the new chef’s cooking).
13.  Alert, alert! Restaurant reviewer in the house. Yet you still manage to serve raw food. He/she laughs at the air/foam/breeze and the height of the food and the $50,000 lampshade.
14. 9/20 scored in major newspaper. Restaurant closes and the reviewer is blamed. Afterall, there’s nothing wrong with really tall food and the new investor thought it tasted great. So did the restaurateurs mates. It’s a shae they weren’t prepared to pay for their meals though. In reality the punters new this was going to happen months ago.

This has given me an idea for a board game. Any additions?

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{ 26 comments… read them below or add one }

Steve Kirk April 19, 2007 at 12:50 pm

The restaurant business is a tough one. Newbies to the scene think it’s a great idea to open an eatery with the bonus cheque they got from the stockbroking firm they work for with the dellusion of sharing a glass or wine or two with the punters.

The harsh reality is that food is labour intensive. The amount of times a raw ingredient needs to be handled before it hits the table is astonishing.

The savvy operator in this climate would be keeping their head down, offering a reasonably priced menu and using quality ingredients as the hero rather than buying crap and adulterating them into something palatable.

Critics can be blamed but it’s a soft cop for a restaurant to believe that to be the reason for a downfall.

The bigger they come (sans crown), the harder they fall – Caveat Emptor!

Carl April 21, 2007 at 1:48 am

Ok, thats it! I am adding your site to my favourites!

Ed April 21, 2007 at 12:04 pm

Cheers Steve,
When you see the success of some places I reckon most of the time the business model is more important than the food.
Carl, thanks. i must revise mine.

RoseyGirl February 24, 2008 at 10:36 pm

Another restaurant have just closed last Tuesday – It’s Véra Restaurant in Brighton.

Ed February 24, 2008 at 10:45 pm

Rosie, I know. I spoke to Barry Vera Friday night. He’s in the UK working on something as a consultant. He said it closed last Monday. Administrators were appointed 18th. If you have anything to add about staff oranything my email contact details are at the top of the page. Cheers.

tommy August 13, 2008 at 1:08 pm

being a past employee of Barry Vera from Veras i hope the people in england know what he had done here in Melbourne if not they should just because you can cook doesnt mean you know how to run a resturant and being famous doesnt mean you dont have to pay the staff super BARRY!!!!!he deserves nothing he cheated about 25+ staff all while taking a big wage himself!!

RoseyGirl April 23, 2009 at 7:26 pm

Yes, I’ve heard that Barry Vera was doing a Christopher Skase thing at Vera Restaurant! So, I wonder where is he now – still in the UK?

tommy April 28, 2009 at 2:33 pm

well with the english being so slow they proberly havent caught on to his antics, and its not the first time that it has happened, hes a weasle he can talk the talk but i doubt weather or not he can walk the walk every thing he has touched has turned to crap during his tender. Here he just burnt so many good people by not paying their super and wages, dont know how people like him sleep at night if he was a real man he would stand by his convictions and pay his debt like other chefs have done and regain the peoples respect and confidence.
lets hope he rotts over there and some one gets him back from all of us here in australia

Anon September 10, 2010 at 10:11 am

Well, for everyone here, he’s already screwing up this £5.5 million South African restaurant named “Shaka Zulu” here in London. I don’t know why the owner Roger Payne hired him. I don’t know why they wouldn’t hire a properly trained South African chef instead of some English chef to run such a pricey operation.

Barry's worker in London. November 6, 2010 at 10:03 am

I will love to hear more about Barry Vera. I work in his restaurant in London. The restaurant is going down, we are not payed etc. I am shocked to read all above.

micia November 12, 2010 at 3:24 am

Barry vera is a big fake, bigger bullshitter and has left a mess all around the world. he is a thief and dishonest. he has run away from unpaid bills, debt and has destroyed lives. He was never EVER EVER EVER the executive chef at the table bay hotel in south africa
He will ruin shaka zulu in a moment and run away from that too.
Roger look in his past and you will not like what you find, what ever you do watch the phone account, he has friends all over the world.
Be careful as your restaurant is beautiful, it deserves a south african chef and not a fake

An employee from Shaka-Zulu. November 12, 2010 at 9:06 am

Shocking! He is such a nice and likable man. It is extremely sad.

Tannie November 23, 2010 at 4:37 pm

I used to work for Barry Vera at Vera Restaurant in Brighton. I have been very suspicious of him since he opened his restaurant because of my superannuation statement says it all. I contacted Australian Taxation Office and unfortunately, they can’t do anything. One of my teachers at cooking school told me some bad things about him and I was shocked and kept it quiet to myself until it went into administration because I dislike all of these chefs (except Sous Chef, he was nice) – they bullied me because of my deafness. Losing this job doesn’t affect me though…

Tannie November 23, 2010 at 4:39 pm

I do not hate Barry Vera but I’m disappointed in him…

boera February 12, 2011 at 1:42 am

Not sure when the head chef had to start paying the wages. Thought that wa the job of the owners or managers!!!

Ex employee. February 16, 2011 at 7:23 pm

I used to work in Shaka-Zulu.
When Shaka felid with my payment –
Barry payed me from his own pocket.

This is a fact.

Peter February 17, 2011 at 8:07 am

Well I have known Barry for a number of years and know EXACTLY what happened. The fact is he only had 10% of the restaurant in Aus. The other shareholders dropped him in the shit in the beginning and at the end, and left him to it when they closed it. He has worked hard to get through and maybe you should approach him and ask him instead of hiding behind a computer you fucking gutless pricks.
Businesses fail for whatever reason, look at Mr Ramsay! told his company should go into administration so he goes and buys a ferrari and a hair transplant. What about all the people his failed restaurants have let down.
Barry is a good man and works hard. You are very sad sad people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And also where he works in London he has nothing to do with staff payroll so how can you throw that at him. He is an employee too. It just shows the kind of person you are. You should all be ashamed of yourselves.

Ed February 17, 2011 at 5:31 pm

Peter,
I’m not sure where you are based but Barry has burnt a lot of people. I agree that people shouldn’t hide behind anonymity.

I suspect there may be many things you don’t know.

Ex employee. February 17, 2011 at 8:12 pm

Jealous people will say anything.

Peter February 17, 2011 at 8:20 pm

Ed,

Yes I am fully aware of what Barry has been through. And I dont think posting it the way you do is the right way either maybe email me directly if you have something to say.

Anne February 17, 2011 at 11:54 pm

I have known Barry personally for many years now and yes I’m sure he has his faults as do we all!! We also all have a past!! Leave him alone and let him get on with his life. Do not believe all the crap you read or hear and im telling you he is one of the most wonderful, inspiring people i have ever met. When hatred is too bitter it places you below those of whom you hate.

Ed February 21, 2011 at 5:16 pm

Anne,
Are you based in the UK or Australia? I know a lot of this is true as I’ve spoken to many people involved. You’d have more credibility if you weren’t anonymous – your email seems to indicate a different name.

fanoula filangie April 14, 2011 at 10:14 am

I work with barry at shaka zulu and the last thing he is doing is running it into the ground, the man is decent and has standards its not up to him to pay peoples wages. the place in aussie he wasn’t even a major share holder and got left in the shit. yawn to you gutless spineless wonders he always tries for his staff and has a team of chefs who would back him anywhere. to reiterate look at the company not the man who doesnt have any thing to do with payroll!! GET A LIFE!!!!!!

Ed April 14, 2011 at 11:19 am

Fanboula, I really hope Barry has changed and it all works. I shall watch with interest.

I think it is inappropriate and you do yourself no service being so abusive. I suggest you find the whole picture before you abuse people who were owed a lot of money by the collapse. Also you might ask Barry about the string of places he worked at prior to the collapse and the circumstances re his departure. Ditto previous ventures before arriving in Australia.

Ex employee. April 14, 2011 at 7:23 pm

Onassis one said – there is no such thing as bad publicity and who cares about the past anyways.

Ed – get over. Life is to short.

Btw. the is a new Barry’s new book coming out soon.
I wish hem best.

Ex employee. April 14, 2011 at 9:45 pm

lol – forgive me my English. I was in a hurry.

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